On July 28, 2026, the precious metals market enters a key event week. The Fed will hold its July rate-setting meeting from July 29 to 30 local time, announcing the rate decision in the early hours of July 31. The market widely expects a 25bps rate hike, raising the federal funds rate target range to 5.50%-5.75%. Meanwhile, several Asian gold miners are issuing Q2 earnings reports, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Barrick Gold (Asia operations), etc., with production and cost data becoming the focus of investors.
Fed Rate Meeting Schedule and Market Expectations
According to the Fed's official schedule, the July rate-setting meeting spans two days. At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Friday, July 31, the rate decision will be announced, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 92.1% probability of a 25bps rate hike and a 7.9% probability of no change. The dot plot from the June meeting indicated that most officials expect two more rate hikes this year, making this meeting the window for the second hike.
Market analysts point out that if the rate hike is implemented, it will be the fourth hike since the Fed resumed tightening in December 2025. Recent US inflation data has moderated but remains above the 2% target, with core PCE price index hovering around 3.6% year-over-year. Powell emphasized at the June press conference that policy would be flexibly adjusted based on economic data. Therefore, the statement's language on inflation and employment, as well as Powell's remarks at the press conference, will directly influence short-term precious metal movements.
Gold Price Dynamics
International gold prices are currently oscillating around $1,980 per ounce, rebounding about 4% from June lows. Rate hike expectations weigh on gold, but central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide support. According to the latest World Gold Council data, global central banks net purchased 186 tons of gold in Q2 2026, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 2,348 tons by end-June. Physical gold demand in Asian markets, especially China and India, remained strong in Q2. If after the rate hike Powell signals dovish tones (e.g., suggesting the tightening cycle is nearing its end), gold could break through the $2,000 level.
Asian Gold Miner Earnings Deluge
This week is the peak period for Q2 earnings releases from Asian gold miners. Domestic leaders such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Zhaojin Mining, as well as African Barrick (ABX) Asian operations, are releasing results between July 27 and 31. The market focuses on the following indicators:
- Gold production: mine expansion progress and grade changes;
- All-in sustaining costs (AISC): erosion of profits by energy and labor costs amid global inflation;
- Capital expenditure plans: new mine development and M&A dynamics.
Zijin Mining previously guided Q2 gold production up 8% year-on-year to 52 tons, but net profit growth may slow due to increased mining rights amortization. Shandong Gold, benefiting from the restart of high-grade domestic mines, expects output to rise 12% quarter-on-quarter. Additionally, Barrick Gold's Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea, after restarting, contributed about 4 tons in Q2, becoming a highlight of its Asian operations.
Short-term Impact of Earnings on Gold Prices
If earnings data show costs rising more than expected, it may reinforce the 'supply tightening' narrative, supporting gold prices. Conversely, if production grows significantly and costs are well controlled, it could ease market concerns about supply gaps. Historically, gold prices often experience short-term fluctuations of 1-2% after gold miner earnings releases, but trend moves require macroeconomic events.
Central Bank Gold Purchase Data Schedule
This week, the IMF will release monthly central bank gold reserve data (for June), and the People's Bank of China will also disclose its official reserve asset details at month-end. The market expects the PBOC to add about 20 tons of gold in June, continuing its pace of 15-25 tons per month. Additionally, central banks of emerging markets such as Turkey and India maintain their buying trend. Central bank gold purchases continue to provide a floor for gold prices, especially when gold approaches $1,950, where bargain buying is evident.
Mine Commissioning Milestones
Notably, one of the world's largest gold mines, Russia's Sukhoi Log project, will officially commence production in early August, with initial annual output of up to 12 tons. The project is operated by Polyus Gold and, due to its remote location, has high costs but ranks among the top globally in reserves. If commissioning proceeds as scheduled, it may add to future supply expectations, posing a potential headwind for gold prices. However, given that Russian gold exports are affected by Western sanctions, the actual inflow into global markets remains to be seen.
Outlook and Strategy Tips
Volatility in the precious metals market is expected to widen this week. Investors should pay close attention to the following events:
- July 29 (Wednesday): Asian gold miner earnings flood; gold prices may show abnormal movements due to individual stock results;
- July 30 (Thursday): US Q2 GDP advance release; stronger-than-expected data would reinforce rate hike expectations and weigh on gold;
- July 31 (Friday): Fed rate decision and press conference, the biggest source of uncertainty this week.
Short-term traders are advised to control positions and avoid heavy directional bets before the decision. Medium-to-long-term investors can build positions on pullbacks, focusing on central bank gold purchases and gold mining cost support. The Precious Metals Key Events Calendar will continue to track the above schedule and provide real-time analysis for investors.
