Market Overview: Active Precious Metals Trading in Asian Session
On July 29, 2026, Asian precious metals markets continued their recent hot streak. According to data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold's cumulative volume during Asian hours since July grew 15.2% from the same period last month, while silver volume rose 18.7%, both hitting new yearly highs. Meanwhile, average daily trading volume of COMEX gold futures in the Asian session exceeded 120,000 contracts, up about 22% from the Q2 average. Market analysts noted that participation from both institutional investors and retail clients in the region has increased simultaneously, with clear signs of capital returning to the precious metals sector.
Transocean Gold Research Institute believes that the current boom in Asian precious metals markets is driven by three key factors: first, the persistent expectation of a Fed rate cut, which lowers real interest rates and benefits gold and silver valuations; second, unabated global central bank gold purchases, providing a solid floor for gold prices; third, physical gold demand in Asia—especially in China and India—has unexpectedly strengthened during the traditional off-season, with exchange inventory declines reflecting consumption resilience.
Intensive Institutional Research Strengthens Valuation Recovery Expectation for Chinese Gold Mining Stocks
Amid rising market sentiment, multiple well-known institutions conducted intensive research on Chinese gold mining firms in late July. According to incomplete statistics, from July 25 to 28, over ten institutions—including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and leading domestic fund houses—engaged in in-depth communication with management of major Chinese gold mining companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining via conference calls or offline meetings. The research focused on each company's actual H1 2026 production, cost control capabilities, and profit elasticity under high gold prices.
During the exchange, Zijin Mining revealed that its Chukaru Peki Copper-Gold Mine in Serbia and Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in the DRC both exceeded production expectations in H1, with comprehensive gold production costs remaining industry-leading. Shandong Gold stated that its Norton Gold Fields project in Western Australia is expanding smoothly, with expected full-year gold production growth of over 8% year-on-year. Boosted by this, U.S.-listed Chinese gold mining ETFs (e.g., NYSE: GDXJ) saw net inflows of approximately $230 million on July 28 ET, the largest single-day inflow in nearly three months.
Transocean Gold Research Institute noted that the current overall valuation of Chinese gold mining stocks remains at historically low levels. Based on projected 2026 production, major Chinese gold mining companies trade at a discount of 20%-30% relative to international peers such as Newmont and Barrick Gold. As market attention on Asian precious metals grows, this valuation gap is expected to gradually narrow.
Dual Support from Macro and Industry Factors
On the macro front, the U.S. June PCE price index released on July 28 showed year-on-year growth slowing to 2.3%, with core PCE down to 2.1%, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a September rate cut has risen to 78%, up 12 percentage points from the start of the month. The downward trend in real interest rates provides medium-term upside momentum for precious metal prices.
At the industry level, the latest data from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks purchased a net 483 tonnes of gold in H1 2026, a 6% increase year-on-year. Asian central banks—including the People's Bank of China, Reserve Bank of India, and National Bank of Kazakhstan—accounted for over 60% of total purchases. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 18th consecutive month, with reserves reaching 2,350 tonnes by end-June; gold's share of China's foreign exchange reserves has risen from about 3% in 2019 to 7.5% currently. The ongoing central bank purchases not only directly stimulate demand but also send a positive allocation signal to the market.
Upgraded Structure of Asian Silver Demand
Notably, industrial silver demand in Asia is accelerating. Silver usage in the photovoltaic industry continues to climb, with China's new PV installations in H1 2026 growing 42% year-on-year, driving silver demand for PV to about 3,500 tonnes—a year-on-year increase of 28%. Additionally, demand for silver in electronic components, automotive electrification, and other areas is also maintaining double-digit growth.
The Shanghai silver spot market recently exhibited a rare shift from backwardation to contango, with spot premiums over futures reaching $0.15/oz in late July, indicating tight spot supply. Data from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) show that silver withdrawals in Asia increased 11% from a year earlier in July, while inventory levels fell about 7%, widening the supply-demand gap. This provides fundamental support for further silver price strength.
Investment Outlook and Risk Warnings
Transocean Gold Research Institute comprehensively assesses that the Asian precious metals market is currently at a stage where capital flows, fundamentals, and valuation windows are converging. Chinese gold mining stocks, with their growth potential and valuation advantage, are expected to become high-beta plays in this precious metals cycle. Investors are advised to focus on companies with resource growth potential, excellent cost control, and clear dividend policies.
Risk factors to watch include: first, if the Fed's rate cut pace falls short of expectations, it could lead to short-term gold price corrections; second, a slowdown in global economic growth may dampen industrial silver demand; third, the macro policy and liquidity risks commonly faced by Chinese ADRs cannot be ignored. Investors should allocate prudently based on their own risk tolerance and avoid chasing highs blindly.
(Transocean Gold Research Institute reminds: This article is based on public information and reasonable assumptions, and does not constitute investment advice. Markets have risks; invest with caution.)
